In Arizona politics, the upcoming 2024 presidential election is quickly taking on the same look as the race in 2020.
With just over a year remaining before Election Day 2024, a new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll again finds President Joe Biden locked in a tight race with former President Donald Trump, with 39% of respondents pledging they would support Biden vs. 37% for Trump.
The O.H. Predictive Insights poll of 1,000 respondents interviewed between January 31 through February 9, found the race would be just as tight if Biden were to face off against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with DeSantis actually edging out Biden by 1 point with 36% of the vote.
“While these numbers clearly suggest that the presidential matchup once again is incredibly tight after Biden was the first democrat in years to carry the state, the big takeout is that Trump doesn’t do as well as DeSantis,” OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble told The Center Square. “It’s early, but of all the folks looking to challenge Trump, it’s looking like he’s the only one that really can. Arizona is going to be a key state, and things are really going to be visceral and hard-hitting before they get nice.”
Making a Biden-Trump rematch all the more intriguing is the fact researchers found neither man currently has an iron grip on party voters, with 38% of voters agreeing they do not want Biden to run for reelection and 30% of republicans going as far as to say there is no room for Trump in the party.
Still, 77% of Democrats say they would back Biden, and 72% of Republicans say the same of Trump. Among independents, 35% of voters said they stand with Biden; 28% support Trump and 38% indicate they are undecided.
While DeSantis tops Biden among Independents 34% to 29%, his 67% support among Republicans falls far short of the 72% registered by Trump in a head-to-head against Biden.
“As with most elections, it comes down to that small group of voters that you have to win over in a General Election,” Noble added. “There will be a lot of work to do in Arizona to win over enough voters to secure a victory come next November, especially given the state’s battleground status. We’re talking about a more middle-of-the-road voter, and they typically don’t like anything on either extreme.”
Republished with the permission of The Center Square.
