Arizona governor’s and U.S. Senate races highly competitive, poll shows

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Blake Masters, who is running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate from Arizona, speaks on stage before President Donald Trump's speech at a Save America rally Friday, July 22, 2022, in Prescott, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin) Ross D. Franklin / AP

If a new poll is any indicator, Arizona will have at least a couple of highly-competitive statewide races on the ballot this November.

The poll released by Emerson College this week found that the incumbent in the U.S. Senate race has a slight lead, and no one has a lead in the race to be the state’s next governor.

According to the poll, U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, a Democrat, has a two-point lead over his Republican challenger, venture capitalist Blake Masters. The poll shows Kelly has a 47% to 45% lead. Five percent of voters said they were undecided, and 4% said they plan to support someone else. Additionally, 53% of voters say they think Kelly will win the race, regardless of who they support.

“A stark gender divide exists in the Arizona Senate Election; men break for Masters by a 10-point margin whereas women voters break for Kelly by 13,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release. “Additionally, Independent voters favor Kelly over Masters, 46% to 37%.”

The numbers are highly similar in the race for governor. In the open seat race, Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs are tied, according to the poll. Each of the candidates has 46% support. Meanwhile, 6% of voters say they are undecided, and 2% say they plan to support someone else in the race. Most (54%) say that they think Lake will win the race. It’s an open-seat election; incumbent Republican governor Doug Ducey is not seeking re-election.

Voters who responded to the poll said that the economy is the most important issue (36%), while so-called “abortion access” and immigration were tied for a distant second at 16%.

“For those who say the economy is their determining issue this November, 63% support Masters and 66% support Lake,” Kimball said. “By contrast, 98% and 99% of those who say abortion access is the most important issue support Kelly and Hobbs.”

The poll was conducted on September 6 and 7 and had a 3.85% margin of error.

Republished with the permission of The Center Square.