Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary a dead heat, poll says

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A where to vote sign points voters in the direction of the polling station as the sun beats down as Arizona voters go the polls to cast their ballots, Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Voters are filing into polling locations Tuesday in Arizona. Will the Republican primary for governor be a close race?

Where several state polls profiling the GOP race for governor do not, a recent Emerson College poll says so.

The poll released on July 31 shows Karrin Taylor Robson leading a neck-and-neck race against fellow Republican Kari Lake, who has former president Donald Trump’s endorsement.

Taylor Robson has 47% support, and Lake has 46%. The other two candidates mustered just 3% support, while 4% of voters considered themselves undecided.

“A stark age divide exists within the Republican gubernatorial primary.” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted in a press release. “Voters under 50 break for Lake by 20 points, voters between 50 and 64 are split: 46% support Lake and 45% Taylor Robson, and voters over 65 break for Taylor Robson by a 19-point margin.”

One’s views of the 2020 presidential election also are a strong indicator of who they support in this race, according to the poll. 

“Among those who are more likely to vote for a candidate who maintains Trump won in 2020, Lake holds 76%, and among those who are less likely to vote for a candidate who maintains Trump won, Taylor Robson holds 79%,” Kimball said in the release. “For those who say it makes no difference on their vote, Taylor Robson leads Lake by eleven points, 52% to 41%.”

This polling result is much different than the Arizona Public Opinion Pulse poll released last week. In it, Lake held a commanding 51% to 33% lead over Robson. It showed that Lake had expanded her early July lead in the race by eight points (39% to 31%) to 18 points. Taylor Robson closes that gap significantly when isolating respondents that communicated via phone. Pollster Brian Noble attributed this to Taylor Robson’s outsized television ad push reaching older voters who prefer a phone call over texting.

Meanwhile, a Data Orbital poll released last week indicated Lake had an 11-point lead over Robson (43.5% to 32.4%). Yet, a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted by Robson’s campaign around the same time said that both candidates had 43% support.