Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary a dead heat, poll shows

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FILE - Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake attends a rally in Florence, Ariz., on Jan. 15, 2022. Ross D. Franklin / AP

There isn’t a clear frontrunner in the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary these days. 

The race appears to be a dead heat, with two candidates polling within the margin of error and another one not far behind. A plurality of voters still hasn’t made up their minds with the election less than two months out. 

An Arizona Public Opinion Pulse poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights found that former TV anchor Kari Lake’s lead in the race continues to shrink. She had 24% in the poll, down from 29% in a poll released by the same pollster back in April. Meanwhile, Arizona Strategies president Karrin Taylor-Robson has stayed competitive; she has 21% support – down one point from the poll two months ago. Taylor-Robinson’s three-point deficit is within the poll’s 5.85% margin of error.

The online poll surveyed 281 registered Republicans likely to vote between May 9 to May 16.

Meanwhile, former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon is in a not-so-distant third place with 14% support. That’s a three-point increase from his standing in the April poll. 

“The race to be the Republican nominee for Governor is currently neck and neck between Robson and Lake, Salmon trailing,” Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research, said in a press release.” With less than two months away from the Primary election, this race is going to heat up before it cools down.”

Yet, the largest bloc of Republican primary voters remains undecided (38%). 

Earning their support will be key for whoever wants to earn the party’s nomination, Noble said.

“The 38% of unsure voters will be the ones to win over – they will be the decision-makers come Election Day,” said Noble.

The Arizona gubernatorial primary will take place on Tuesday, August 2, 2022. 

Republished with the permission of The Center Square.